Macroeconomics: August 2009

Sunday, August 30, 2009

"Social Epidemic" of Ideas

For those, like me, mystified by the variety of economic prognostications, this article by Robert Shiller, "An Echo Chamber of Boom and Bust," (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/30/business/economy/30view.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=echo%20chamber&st=cse) provides some kind of explanation for recent reports of "green shoots" in the economy. Shiller is the author of Irrational Exuberance, a book which takes its title from testimony before Congress by Alan Greenspan. Sometimes Shiller is described as a "bear" but this article suggests that his views about the future of the economy are less a matter of mental stance and more a matter of what the data actually indicate.

Friday, August 28, 2009

latest GDP numbers

Here is an article from Bloomberg.com about the latest release of data from the Commerce Department about Gross Domestic Product: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aciN00caWOKA.

What do the numbers mean? How are they interpreted in the article

Deficit and Debt

See the recent opinion column by Paul Krugman, 2008 Nobel Prize winner in economics at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&hp.

What are the "positive economics" components of the column?

What are the "normative economics" components of the column?

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Bank Stress Tests and Deleveraging

In a column in the New York Times, Gretchen Morgenson reports on a study of the financial health of regional and community banks (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/23/business/economy/23gret.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=What%20the%20Stress%20Tests%20Didn’t%20Predict&st=cse). The recent performance of financial stock prices would suggest that financial institutions are becoming healthier - that we have "turned the corner" in terms of the crisis in finance. But the data suggest that financial institutions (at least those covered in the study) are becoming less healthy.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

www. bls. gov/ news. release/ empsit. t12. htm

Curating the Credit Crisis

"Even in the best of times, it was never going to be easy to curate an homage to high finance."

Article in the New York Times about exhibits at the Museum of American Finance: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/22/business/22museum.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=museum%20of%20american%20finance&st=cse

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Centers, Institutes, and Offices of Interest

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

http://www.cbpp.org/

Congressional Budget Office

http://www.cbo.gov/

Office of Management and Budget

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/

General Accountability Office (formerly General Accounting Office)

http://www.gao.gov/

U.S. Treasury Department (Offices)

http://www.treas.gov/offices/

Books of Interest

The Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed, Penguin Press (2009); ISBN: 978-1-59420-182-0

The Cost of Capitalism: Understanding Market Mayhem and Stabilizing Our Economic Future by Robert J. Barbera, McGraw-Hill (2009); ISBN: 978-0-07-162844-0

The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 by Paul Krugman, W. W. Norton (2009); ISBN: 978-0-393-07101-6

A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of ’08 and the Descent into Depression by Richard A. Posner, Harvard University Press, ISBN: 978-0-674-03514-0

In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke's War on the Great Panic by David Wessel, Crown Business (2009); ISBN: 978-0307459688