Monday, September 8, 2014

Secular stagnation?

“Secular stagnation” is an emerging topic in macroeconomics.  It is most often associated with Lawrence Summers, who wrote a recent blog post on the subject: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lawrence-summers-supply-issues-could-hamper-the-us-economy/2014/09/07/274ce00c-352f-11e4-9e92-0899b306bbea_story.html.


Summers’ post notes that his conceptualization of secular stagnation looked mostly at the demand side of the macroeconomy (for example, the Zero Lower Bound on interest rates), but that others – he mentions Robert Gordon – emphasize supply side considerations, like an aging population and the end of large increases in women’s labor force participation.

What’s wrong with the unemployment rate?


Appelbaum notes that the unemployment rate is imperfect as a policy guide, but so are the alternatives: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/06/upshot/the-jobless-rate-the-worst-benchmark-except-for-all-the-others.html?abt=0002&abg=1.